Most traders are taught to chase excitement.

I’ve spent decades doing almost the opposite.

The opportunities I prefer often appear when sentiment is mixed, excitement is low, and risk can be tightly defined.

This weekend, while preparing material for my June 2 San Francisco presentation on using Elliott Waves to identify low-risk trading opportunities, one stock stood out:

CVS.

Not because it is glamorous.

Not because it is making headlines.

Because the wave structure appears to be creating an interesting risk/reward setup.

I am looking for a small dip to buy.

Whether the trade works or not is secondary.

What matters is the process:

Can a structured Elliott Wave framework help identify opportunities before the crowd notices?

Today's CVS setup will likely become one of the examples I discuss in San Francisco.

Charts below.

We start with a recent significant low of $43.56 and see Wave B was a 50% retracement of Wave A

Suppose we label the chart differently, then we get an even more bullish outlook

A conservative approach will be to say we got an X wave after an ABC move and we could get another ABC move up! Notice the X wave was 38.2% of the first ABC.

If the second ABC were to be equal to the first ABC, the target will be above $111.

We will now look carefully at the moves off the X wave bottom. Sub wave 2 finished between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of sub wave 1

Sub wave 3 was extended to reach 238.2% of sub wave 1

We will use the confluence of the two Fibonacci retracements coming at $89.43 as our key short-term support and place our stop below that

Possible targets for sub-wave 5 are shown here

Trading is all about consistently taking bets where the payoff is substantial when compared to the risk we take. I don’t profess to know the future. But I do have an approach that wins over time. I teach these same methods in my online program at https://elliottwaves.com

Here is the event in San Francisco slated for 2 June 2026. If you are in the area, why don’t you drop in!

HedgeWestSF - Quantitative Finance Meetup

A quarterly meetup for hedge fund and quantitative finance professionals in San Francisco

hedgewestsf.org/events

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